A report from IDC forecasts the “most severe yearly contraction on record” for PC shipments. 
The report notes that not only are PC shipments expected to fall by 10.1 percent this year, but that volumes are only expected to stabilise “above” 300 million units, “with no significant recovery” in sight.
The contraction, said to be “by far the most severe yearly contraction on record” by the analysts, is due to interest in purchasing PCs “remain[ing] limited”, and as such “leading to little indication of positive growth beyond replacement of existing systems”. IDC added that shipments are even expected to fall by another 3.8 percent in 2014 before starting to recover in the longer term.
In terms of unit sales, this would mean shipments would be around 300 million, which is “barely ahead” of PC volumes from 2008, and even in emerging markets shipments are “projected to decline” in 2014 before recovering slightly “by only a few percent”. On a split market view, the consumer market has seen a nearly 15 percent decline in shipments, though the commercial market is “faring notably better” with only a five percent decline in shipments.
The stability of the commercial market in comparison to the consumer one is apparently due to “a mix of more stable PC investment planning, a smaller impact from tablets”, and “replacements of Windows XP systems before the end of support” in early 2014. IDC warned however that the long term forecast for both markets is “not significantly different”, with smaller declines giving way to “near flat growth” in the long term.
Jay Chou, Senior Research Analyst for Worldwide Quarterly PC Trackers at IDC, stated: “Perhaps the chief concern for future PC demand is a lack of reasons to replace an older system. While IDC research finds that the PC still remains the primary computing device – for example, PCs are used more hours per day than tablets or phones – PC usage is nonetheless declining each year as more devices become available.
“And despite industry efforts, PC usage has not moved significantly beyond consumption and productivity tasks to differentiate PCs from other devices. As a result, PC lifespans continue to increase, thereby limiting market growth.”
Loren Loverde, Vice President of Worldwide Quarterly PC Trackers, added: “The emergence of two-in-one devices designed to function in both clamshell and slate configurations – many of which will run Windows – along with Windows-based tablets themselves, is expected to provide some new volume for the Windows platform as well as the PC vendors and other parts of the traditional PC ecosystem in coming years.
“The Windows-based tablet market is expected to grow to 39.3 million units in 2017 from less than 7.5 million in 2013 and less than one million in 2011. However, relative to a PC market size of roughly 300 million units, these Windows tablets would add just a couple [of] percent a year relative to PC growth. Even so, these Windows devices are projected to account for 10 percent of a combined PC and Windows Tablet market by 2016 – making them an important growth segment for the PC ecosystem.”