IDC finds worldwide PC shipments are slightly higher than forecasted, but sees it as a short-term gain.
The analyst expects worldwide PC shipments to fall by -2.7 percent in 2014 compared to the previous forecast of -3.7 percent, with shipments in 3Q2014 down by only 0.5 percent from the previous year, but emphasises that the outlook “remains cautious” as market participants in most regions saw this as a short-term gain rather than an indication of stronger growth in the medium- or long-term.
Growth in mature market has continued, with Western Europe and Japan, performing better than expected, although the gains were driven by a rebound from the previous year as well as short-term factors such as building fourth quarter inventory earlier in the year and continuing the replacement of Windows XP. The short-term nature of the gains means that mature regions are expected to see PC shipments decline again in 2015 and contract slightly through to the end of the forecast.
Meanwhile, a rebound in emerging regions has taken longer due to a later impact from tablets, slower economics and commercial replacements.
Looking at the consumer market, IDC found that it was slightly ahead of projections in 3Q2014, but shipments are still expected to decline by five percent this year. While pressure from tablets is decreasing “as penetration rises and tablets move to smaller sizes and lower price points”, competition for disposable income is rising for smartphones and phablets. The third quarter saw the market boosted by a rise in low-cost systems in many markets and a rebound in Western Europe, helping to restore volume to earlier levels “but not without cost in value of shipments”.
In terms of product category volumes, portable PCs outnumbered desktop PCs in both emerging and mature markets during 2014, with emerging markets seeing 80.2 million units of desktop PCs shipped compared to 83.7 million portable PCs; and mature markets seeing 53.3 million desktop PCs shipped compared to 89.4 million portable PCs.
By 2018, emerging markets are expected to see a growth in total PC shipments of 0.8 percent compared to the current decline of -9.9 percent, while mature markets, which are currently seeing total PC shipment growth of 7.1 percent, are expected to show a decline of -0.9 percent. Overall, the worldwide total PC market is expected to see a 0.0 percent growth by 2018.
Jay Chou, Senior Research Analyst, Worldwide PC Trackers, commented: “The expansion of entry-level models, encouraged by Windows 8 + Bing systems, has helped improve consumer volume in recent quarters and should extend past the fourth quarter. Chromebooks are similarly boosting the low-end commercial segment. However, the market is still recovering to near-stable volumes with no significant growth in the forecast.”
Meanwhile Loren Loverde, Vice President, Worldwide PC Trackers, added: “In the best case for PCs, we’d see a significant wave of replacements as users who spent on phones and tablets in recent years decide they really need to update their PC. Features like touch or convertibility, as well as Windows 10 could make systems more versatile and appealing, along with lower prices.
“However, we’ve seen steady progress on prices and new designs over the past year, and replacements are stabilising PC shipments but not boosting total volume. Going forward, as younger generations become more mobile and web-oriented, and emerging regions in particular prioritise converged devices (or economy in number of devices to purchase), the PC market will continue to face tough competition and be more focused on replacements, with limited potential for growth.”
The Recycler reported in July that the worldwide PC market stabilised in the second quarter of the year, with results showing the smallest decline in printer shipments for two years.